Category: Geopolitical Risk Intelligence

Data-driven political and economic risk predictions. Monitoring public databases, historical analysis, and predictive modeling for community safety.

Tech Cold War 2026 — Microsoft, AWS, and the Geopolitics of AI Infrastructure

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Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18860354  31stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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The year 2026 marks a decisive inflection point in the global contest over artificial intelligence infrastructure. With the "Big Five" hyperscalers — Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Oracle — collectively forecast to exceed $600 billion in capital expenditure, representing a 36% increase over 2025, the construction of data centers, GPU clusters, and regional cloud regions has become a prima...

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18860354 31stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[h]Freshness [REQ]31%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 31%
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Score = Ref Trust (17 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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OpenAI Enterprise Expansion: Geopolitical Implications of $110B AI Dominance

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Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18841505  35stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[t]Trusted19%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI6%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
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[l]Academic6%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
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[r]References16 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,288✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,288
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[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (14 × 60%) + Required (4/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

On February 27, 2026, OpenAI finalized the largest private funding round in artificial intelligence history — $110 billion at a $730 billion pre-money valuation — led by Amazon ($50B), Nvidia ($30B), and SoftBank ($30B). This capital event is not merely a corporate milestone; it represents a geopolitical inflection point. The simultaneous announcement of a Pentagon contract and an expanded Open...

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18841505 35stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[t]Trusted19%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI6%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
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[i]Indexed6%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic6%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
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[r]References16 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,288✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,288
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[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]65%✓≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 65%
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[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (14 × 60%) + Required (4/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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Velocity, Momentum, and Collapse: How Global Macro Dynamics Drive Near-Term Political Risk

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Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18829686  40stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
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[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (32 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

The relationship between global macroeconomic indicators and political instability is not merely a function of levels — the velocity and acceleration of change matter as much as the state itself. A country weathering chronic economic stress may remain stable; sudden deterioration triggers cascading collapse dynamics. This paper presents the World Stability Intelligence (WSI) Macro Velocity Fram...

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18829686 40stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[t]Trusted33%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI33%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
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[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
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[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (32 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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Economic Vulnerability and Political Fragility: Are They the Same Crisis?

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Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18829103  42stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
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[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (35 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

Economic collapse and political fragility are often treated as symptoms of the same disease — the assumption being that when an economy fails, political violence follows inevitably. But the World Stability Intelligence (WSI) dataset, covering 87 countries across six regions, reveals a more nuanced picture. Some countries maintain remarkable political stability despite severe economic distress (...

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18829103 42stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[t]Trusted50%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI17%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
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[h]Freshness [REQ]20%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 20%
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[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (35 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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World Stability Intelligence: Unifying Conflict Prediction and Geopolitical Risk into a Single Model

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18828896  38stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[a]DOI8%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
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Score = Ref Trust (29 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

Two distinct analytical traditions have long operated in parallel without converging: conflict prediction — the binary question of whether armed violence will occur in a given country — and geopolitical risk assessment — the continuous measurement of how politically and economically unstable an environment is. Political scientists model the former; risk analysts calculate the latter. Yet both a...

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18828896 38stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
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[t]Trusted46%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI8%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
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[l]Academic23%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
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[w]Words [REQ]2,931✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,931
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18828896
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
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[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (29 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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Forecasting Political Risk: A Comparative Analysis of Time Series Prediction Methods

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Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18828738  41stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources25%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted44%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI25%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed13%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic38%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access31%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References16 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,690✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,690
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18828738
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]18%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 18%
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[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (34 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

Predicting political risk is fundamentally different from economic forecasting — and the difference matters enormously for both policymakers and investors. Economic variables like GDP growth or inflation exhibit mean-reverting behaviour around structural trends; central banks provide forward guidance; quarterly revisions are orderly. Political risk, by contrast, is punctuated by discontinuities...

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18828738 41stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources25%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted44%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI25%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed13%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic38%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access31%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References16 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,690✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,690
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18828738
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]18%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 18%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (34 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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