Ukraine Crisis Prediction Hub
Multi-factor regional risk forecasting with Explainable AI
All Regions
Low <25%
Medium 25-50%
High 50-75%
Critical >75%
12-Month Risk Trend (All Categories)
Current Risk Breakdown by Category
XAI: Prediction Factors & Weights
Click a region on the map to see detailed prediction factors and their contribution to risk scores.
🗂️ Source Dataset Parameters
| Parameter | Value | Source | Updated | Impact |
|---|
📚 Data Sources & Methodology
ACLED Conflict Data
Armed conflict events, fatalities, actor involvement. Updated weekly.
UN OCHA Humanitarian
IDP flows, humanitarian access, shelter needs assessment.
Ukrenergo Grid Data
Power generation capacity, transmission status, outage reports.
WHO Health Facilities
Hospital operational status, bed capacity, medicine availability.
UNHCR Displacement
Refugee movements, return patterns, population estimates.
FAO Food Security
Crop production, supply chains, market prices, food access.
📡 Live Ukraine Conflict Data (5-Year Trend)
Checking API status… · Data: GDELT conflict events for Ukraine · API Status ↗
Data Sources:
ACLED •
HDX •
UN OCHA •
FAO •
WHO
⚠️ Predictions are model estimates based on historical patterns. Actual conditions may vary.
⚠️ Predictions are model estimates based on historical patterns. Actual conditions may vary.
📡 API Dependencies
Geopolitical Risk API —
Status:
Endpoints used:
Data: GDELT conflict events for Ukraine
If unavailable: tool shows cached/static data
Check API status ↗
War Prediction Model — /war-prediction-model/
Uses same core methodology for conflict probability calculation
/geo-risk-api/Status:
Endpoints used:
/api/chart/timeseries?country=UAData: GDELT conflict events for Ukraine
If unavailable: tool shows cached/static data
Check API status ↗
War Prediction Model — /war-prediction-model/
Uses same core methodology for conflict probability calculation
📋 Release Notes
v1.0.0 (2026-03-09)
• Live Data Feed — Integrated Geo Risk API for Ukraine-specific conflict charts
• API Dependencies — Added status indicator for Geo Risk API health
• Data Freshness — Added last-updated indicator
v0.2.0 (2026-02-28)
• Multi-Factor Risk — 6 risk categories (medical, electricity, water, heating, telecom, food)
• XAI Panel — Explainable AI factor breakdown per region
• Time Horizon — Week/Month/Quarter forecast selector
v0.1.0 (2026-02-22)
• Initial Release — 27 oblast coverage
• Interactive Map — Click-to-select region analysis
• Dual Charts — Trend + factor breakdown
• Data Sources — ACLED, UNHCR, WHO, Ukrenergo integration
• Live Data Feed — Integrated Geo Risk API for Ukraine-specific conflict charts
• API Dependencies — Added status indicator for Geo Risk API health
• Data Freshness — Added last-updated indicator
v0.2.0 (2026-02-28)
• Multi-Factor Risk — 6 risk categories (medical, electricity, water, heating, telecom, food)
• XAI Panel — Explainable AI factor breakdown per region
• Time Horizon — Week/Month/Quarter forecast selector
v0.1.0 (2026-02-22)
• Initial Release — 27 oblast coverage
• Interactive Map — Click-to-select region analysis
• Dual Charts — Trend + factor breakdown
• Data Sources — ACLED, UNHCR, WHO, Ukrenergo integration