Category: Geopolitical Risk Intelligence

Data-driven political and economic risk predictions. Monitoring public databases, historical analysis, and predictive modeling for community safety.

World Stability Intelligence: Unifying Conflict Prediction and Geopolitical Risk into a Single Model

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Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18828896  40stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[t]Trusted55%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI9%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
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[l]Academic27%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access55%○≥80% are freely accessible
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Score = Ref Trust (33 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

Two distinct analytical traditions have long operated in parallel without converging: conflict prediction — the binary question of whether armed violence will occur in a given country — and geopolitical risk assessment — the continuous measurement of how politically and economically unstable an environment is. Political scientists model the former; risk analysts calculate the latter. Yet both a...

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18828896 40stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted55%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI9%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed27%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic27%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access55%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References11 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,921✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,921
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18828896
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]11%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 11%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (33 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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Forecasting Political Risk: A Comparative Analysis of Time Series Prediction Methods

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Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18828738  43stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources29%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted50%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI29%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed14%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic43%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access21%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References14 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,676✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,676
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18828738
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]21%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 21%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (38 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

Predicting political risk is fundamentally different from economic forecasting — and the difference matters enormously for both policymakers and investors. Economic variables like GDP growth or inflation exhibit mean-reverting behaviour around structural trends; central banks provide forward guidance; quarterly revisions are orderly. Political risk, by contrast, is punctuated by discontinuities...

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18828738 43stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources29%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted50%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI29%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed14%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic43%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access21%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References14 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,676✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,676
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18828738
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]21%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 21%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (38 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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