Data-driven political and economic risk predictions. Monitoring public databases, historical analysis, and predictive modeling for community safety.
Economic collapse and political fragility are often treated as symptoms of the same disease — the assumption being that when an economy fails, political violence follows inevitably. But the World Stability Intelligence (WSI) dataset, covering 87 countries across six regions, reveals a more nuanced picture. Some countries maintain remarkable political stability despite severe economic distress (...
Two distinct analytical traditions have long operated in parallel without converging: conflict prediction — the binary question of whether armed violence will occur in a given country — and geopolitical risk assessment — the continuous measurement of how politically and economically unstable an environment is. Political scientists model the former; risk analysts calculate the latter. Yet both a...
Predicting political risk is fundamentally different from economic forecasting — and the difference matters enormously for both policymakers and investors. Economic variables like GDP growth or inflation exhibit mean-reverting behaviour around structural trends; central banks provide forward guidance; quarterly revisions are orderly. Political risk, by contrast, is punctuated by discontinuities...