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Category: War Prediction

ML-based conflict probability prediction and analysis

How Our War Prediction Model Anticipated the Iran Conflict

Posted on February 28, 2026March 9, 2026 by Admin
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18816597  36stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted60%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI0%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed20%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic0%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access20%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References5 refs○Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]1,260✗Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 1,260
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18816597
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]100%✓≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 100%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (25 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iran, marking the most significant Middle Eastern conflict escalation since the Iraq War. Our Stabilarity War Prediction Model had been tracking Iran's conflict probability for weeks, showing a 49.7% conflict probability with an increasing trend — a warning that materialized into reality within hours of ...

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DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18816597 36stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted60%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI0%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed20%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic0%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access20%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References5 refs○Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]1,260✗Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 1,260
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18816597
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]100%✓≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 100%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (25 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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