Category: War Prediction

ML-based conflict probability prediction and analysis

How Our War Prediction Model Anticipated the Iran Conflict

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DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18816597  50stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
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On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iran, marking the most significant Middle Eastern conflict escalation since the Iraq War. Our Stabilarity War Prediction Model had been tracking Iran's conflict probability for weeks, showing a 49.7% conflict probability with an increasing trend — a warning that materialized into reality within hours of ...

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DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18816597 50stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted56%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI11%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed11%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic11%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access56%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References9 refs○Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]1,305✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 1,305
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]4✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 4
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18816597
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness57%○≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 57%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (28 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (2/7 × 10%)
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