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Category: Geopolitical Risk Intelligence

Data-driven political and economic risk predictions. Monitoring public databases, historical analysis, and predictive modeling for community safety.

AI-Assisted Treaty Monitoring: From Arms Control to Export Compliance Verification

Posted on July 18, 2026July 18, 2026 by
Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21430730  52stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted89%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI67%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed0%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic89%✓≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References9 refs○Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]426✗Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 426
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21430730
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]50%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 50%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams1✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 1
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (62 × 60%) + Required (2/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

Treaty monitoring traditionally relied on manual reviews of satellite archives, customs ledgers, and financial disclosures. Recent pilots in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Financial Action Task Force show how AI can process petabytes of data to surface anomalous patterns quickly. This article investigates AI pipelines that support modern treaty verification and addresses three r...

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21430730 52stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted89%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI67%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed0%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic89%✓≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References9 refs○Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]426✗Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 426
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21430730
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]50%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 50%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams1✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 1
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (62 × 60%) + Required (2/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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Critical Infrastructure AI Dependencies: Mapping Single Points of Failure in National AI Supply Chains

Posted on July 13, 2026July 14, 2026 by
Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21348214  19stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted6%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI3%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed0%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic6%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access9%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References33 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]1,109✗Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 1,109
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21348214
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]3%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 3%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (8 × 60%) + Required (2/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

Critical Infrastructure AI Dependencies: Mapping Single Points of Failure in National AI Supply Chains

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21348214 19stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted6%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI3%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed0%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic6%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access9%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References33 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]1,109✗Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 1,109
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21348214
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]3%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 3%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (8 × 60%) + Required (2/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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Sanctions Intelligence Automation: AI-Driven Screening at Scale Under EU and US Regimes

Posted on July 8, 2026July 8, 2026 by
Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21266399  57stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted85%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI69%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed8%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic77%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References13 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]1,370✗Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 1,370
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21266399
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]64%✓≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 64%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (61 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

Accurate and efficient sanctions screening is a critical compliance requirement for financial institutions operating across the European Union and United States. While rule‑based systems dominate current workflows, recent advances in neural representation l[REDACTED]g offer the prospect of dramatically reducing false‑positive rates and operational costs. This article investigates the deployment...

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21266399 57stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted85%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI69%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed8%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic77%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References13 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]1,370✗Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 1,370
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21266399
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]64%✓≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 64%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (61 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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AI Conflict Prediction Accuracy: Evaluating Forecasting Models Against 2024-2025 Events

Posted on July 3, 2026July 3, 2026 by
Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21177685  72stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources71%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted86%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI79%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef71%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed71%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic86%✓≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References14 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]1,334✗Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 1,334
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21177685
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]85%✓≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 85%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams2✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 2
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (85 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

The proliferation of AI-driven geopolitical risk forecasting has transformed conflict prediction methodologies, yet systematic validation against real-world outcomes remains incomplete. This study conducts a retrospective evaluation of five major forecasting platforms—including PredictIt, Metaculus, and three commercial vendors—against 47 documented conflict escalations between January 2024 and...

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21177685 72stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources71%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted86%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI79%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef71%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed71%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic86%✓≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References14 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]1,334✗Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 1,334
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.21177685
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]85%✓≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 85%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams2✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 2
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (85 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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Humanitarian Aid Diversion — Modeling Leakage Channels and Mitigation Strategies

Posted on May 15, 2026May 15, 2026 by
Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20196159  62stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted100%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI50%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed0%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic100%✓≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References2 refs○Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,267✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,267
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20196159
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]100%✓≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 100%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams5✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 5
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (59 × 60%) + Required (4/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

Humanitarian assistance is increasingly channelled through complex logistical networks that span unstable conflict zones, fragile state infrastructures, and volatile political landscapes. While digital innovations such as privacy‑preserving wallets [1], satellite‑based monitoring [2], and bio‑inspired optimisation algorithms [3] promise greater transparency and efficiency, they also introduce n...

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20196159 62stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted100%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI50%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed0%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic100%✓≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References2 refs○Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,267✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,267
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20196159
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]100%✓≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 100%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams5✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 5
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (59 × 60%) + Required (4/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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Measuring State Fragility: An Empirical RSI Framework Applied to Ukraine

Posted on March 12, 2026March 13, 2026 by Admin
Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18998198  34stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted33%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI33%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed33%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic33%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References3 refs○Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]1,262✗Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 1,262
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18998198
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]25%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 25%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (32 × 60%) + Required (2/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

We built something. Not a dashboard, not a report, not another data visualization that looks impressive but tells you nothing actionable. We built a ruler. A ruler that measures the same thing — instability — whether you point it at a country, a city, or a neighbourhood. The same 0-to-1 scale. The same formula. The same question: how close is this place to falling apart?

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18998198 34stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted33%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI33%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed33%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic33%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References3 refs○Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]1,262✗Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 1,262
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18998198
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]25%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 25%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (32 × 60%) + Required (2/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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When the Economy Collapses, the Government Follows: Mapping the Dependency Between Economic and Political Instability

Posted on March 12, 2026March 12, 2026 by Admin
Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18972765  47stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources22%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted78%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI33%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef22%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed0%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic33%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access78%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References9 refs○Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,045✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,045
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18972765
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]0%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 0%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (44 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

Venezuela's GDP contracted by more than 80 percent between 2013 and 2021 — one of the largest peacetime economic collapses ever recorded. Its political system, meanwhile, had not yet fully collapsed when the economy began its descent. The government survived by concentrating power, suppressing opposition, and externalizing blame. But the sequence is unmistakable: the economy fell first, and pol...

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18972765 47stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources22%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted78%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI33%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef22%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed0%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic33%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access78%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References9 refs○Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,045✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,045
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18972765
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]0%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 0%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (44 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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The World Is Less Violent Than in 2000. It Is Also Less Stable. Here Is Why.

Posted on March 12, 2026March 12, 2026 by Admin
Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18972000  34stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources17%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted50%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI25%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef8%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed8%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic25%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access50%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References12 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]1,885✗Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 1,885
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18972000
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]17%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 17%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (33 × 60%) + Required (2/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

The conflict proxy score — our model's aggregate measure of active armed conflict intensity across 87 countries — has fallen from 6.85 in 2000 to 5.20 in 2023. That is a 24% decline over 23 years. By the oldest and most intuitive measure of global danger, the world is meaningfully safer than it was at the turn of the millennium.

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18972000 34stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources17%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted50%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI25%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef8%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed8%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic25%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access50%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References12 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]1,885✗Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 1,885
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18972000
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]17%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 17%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (33 × 60%) + Required (2/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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The Algorithm That Watches the World Fall Apart

Posted on March 11, 2026March 11, 2026 by Admin
Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18968959  37stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted43%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI0%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed43%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic43%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access86%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References7 refs○Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,317✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,317
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18968959
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]0%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 0%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams0○Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 0
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (32 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (0/4 × 10%)

This article describes the development and deployment of the World Stability Intelligence (WSI) system — a machine l[REDACTED]g-driven geopolitical risk monitoring platform that continuously tracks 87 countries across three risk dimensions: war risk (45%), political risk (35%), and economic risk (20%). Drawing on an ML-enhanced heuristic prediction framework (HPF-P), the system generates normal...

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18968959 37stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted43%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI0%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed43%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic43%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access86%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References7 refs○Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,317✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,317
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18968959
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]0%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 0%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams0○Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 0
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (32 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (0/4 × 10%)
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The Ratepayer Protection Pledge: Trump’s AI Energy Gambit and the Geopolitics of Power

Posted on March 8, 2026March 8, 2026 by
Geopolitical Research
Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18905817  36stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted40%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI13%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed13%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic13%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access40%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References15 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,392✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,392
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18905817
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]40%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 40%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (25 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

On March 4, 2026, seven of the world's most powerful technology corporations — Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, and xAI — signed the Ratepayer Protection Pledge at the White House, committing to absorb the full cost of electricity generation required by their artificial intelligence data centers. The pledge, announced by President Trump in his State of the Union address and form...

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Geopolitical Research by Oleh Ivchenko DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18905817 36stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted40%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI13%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef0%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed13%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic13%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access40%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References15 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,392✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,392
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18905817
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]40%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 40%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (25 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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