Category: Shadow Economy Dynamics

Tax burden, informatization, and shadow economy dynamics in Ukraine. Scenario analysis and game-theoretic approaches.

VAT Gap Estimation for Ukraine: Methodology and Cross-Country Comparison

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Economic Research
Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19281632  48stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[s]Reviewed Sources11%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted37%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI32%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef16%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed37%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic32%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References19 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,471✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,471
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19281632
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]47%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 47%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code✓✓Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (38 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (3/4 × 10%)

The value-added tax (VAT) compliance gap represents the difference between theoretical VAT liability and actual VAT revenue collected, serving as a primary quantitative indicator of tax evasion and shadow economic activity. This article examines the methodological landscape for VAT gap estimation, applies a comparative framework to Ukraine's fiscal context, and benchmarks Ukrainian VAT performa...

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19281632 48stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[s]Reviewed Sources11%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted37%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI32%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef16%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed37%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic32%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References19 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,471✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,471
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19281632
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]47%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 47%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code✓✓Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (38 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (3/4 × 10%)
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Regional Disparities in Ukraine’s Shadow Economy: An Oblasts-Level Analysis 2015–2025

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Economic Research
Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19258692  69stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[s]Reviewed Sources47%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted73%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI73%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef53%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed80%✓≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic73%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References15 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,086✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,086
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19258692
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]8%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 8%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (77 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (2/4 × 10%)

Ukraine's shadow economy constitutes one of the most persistent structural challenges to its fiscal sustainability and governance reform agenda. While national-level estimates have been widely studied, the regional dimension — how shadow activity distributes across Ukraine's 25 oblasts — remains underexplored in quantitative literature. This article presents an oblasts-level analysis of shadow ...

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19258692 69stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[s]Reviewed Sources47%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted73%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI73%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef53%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed80%✓≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic73%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References15 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,086✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,086
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19258692
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]8%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 8%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (77 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (2/4 × 10%)
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Digital Payment Adoption and Shadow Economy Reduction: Evidence from Ukraine’s Diia Platform

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Economic Research
Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19242241  51stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[s]Reviewed Sources24%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted52%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI33%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef24%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed38%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic52%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access76%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References21 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,363✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,363
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19242241
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]40%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 40%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (47 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (2/4 × 10%)

This article examines the relationship between digital payment adoption and shadow economy reduction in Ukraine, with particular focus on the Diia government services platform as a digitalization catalyst. Drawing on National Bank of Ukraine transaction data (2015–2025), cross-country panel evidence, and sector-level informality estimates, we investigate whether cashless payment penetration cau...

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19242241 51stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources24%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted52%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI33%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef24%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed38%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic52%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access76%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References21 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,363✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,363
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19242241
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]40%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 40%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (47 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (2/4 × 10%)
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Tax Evasion Mechanisms in Ukraine: A Typology of Shadow Economy Channels

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Economic Research
Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19229248  55stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[s]Reviewed Sources35%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted48%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI52%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef35%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed48%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic52%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access91%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References23 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,522✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,522
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19229248
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]50%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 50%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (53 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (2/4 × 10%)

Ukraine's shadow economy remains one of the largest in Europe, with wartime conditions creating both new evasion channels and shifting the composition of existing ones. This article develops a comprehensive typology of tax evasion mechanisms operating in Ukraine, classifying shadow economy channels along three dimensions: mechanism type, sectoral concentration, and detection difficulty. Drawing...

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19229248 55stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources35%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted48%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI52%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef35%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed48%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic52%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access91%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References23 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,522✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,522
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19229248
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]50%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 50%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (53 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (2/4 × 10%)
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Policy Implications and a Decision Framework for Shadow Economy Reduction in Ukraine

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Economic Research
Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016590  59stabilfr·wdophcgmx
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[s]Reviewed Sources4%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted87%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI39%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef9%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed83%✓≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic39%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access74%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References23 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,071✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,071
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016590
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]13%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 13%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams2✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 2
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (64 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

Paper 3 of 3 in the series "Shadow Economy Dynamics." Builds on Paper 1: Problem Landscape and Paper 2: Scenario Analysis.

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016590 59stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources4%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted87%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI39%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef9%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed83%✓≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic39%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access74%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References23 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,071✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,071
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016590
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]13%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 13%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams2✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 2
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (64 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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Scenario Analysis: Modeling Three Futures for Ukraine’s Shadow Economy (2025–2030)

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Economic Research
Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016584  49stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted55%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI55%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef9%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed27%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic45%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access82%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References11 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,248✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,248
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016584
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]17%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 17%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (48 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

In Paper 1 of this series (Ivchenko, Ivchenko & Grybeniuk, 2026a), we established that Ukraine's shadow economy has remained persistently high — between 30% and 45% of official GDP over the decade 2015–2025. We identified two competing feedback loops: a reinforcing cycle where high tax burdens push economic actors into informality, and a balancing mechanism where digitalization increases tr...

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016584 49stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted55%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI55%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef9%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed27%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic45%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access82%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References11 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,248✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,248
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016584
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]17%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 17%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (48 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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Tax Burden, Digitalization, and Shadow Economy in Ukraine: A Problem Landscape (2015–2025)

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19008827  44stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted47%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI35%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef12%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed24%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic35%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access71%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References17 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,017✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,017
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19008827
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]5%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 5%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (39 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)

Ukraine's shadow economy remains one of the largest in Europe, consistently estimated at 30–45% of official GDP over the past decade. This phenomenon directly undermines fiscal stability, distorts market competition, and complicates the country's path toward EU accession. The interaction between tax policy, digital governance, and informal economic activity forms a complex adaptive system where...

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19008827 44stabilfr·wdophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted47%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI35%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef12%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed24%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic35%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access71%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References17 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,017✓Minimum 2,000 words for a full research article. Current: 2,017
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19008827
[o]ORCID [REQ]✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed [REQ]—✗Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness [REQ]5%✗≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 5%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (39 × 60%) + Required (3/5 × 30%) + Optional (1/4 × 10%)
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