Category: Shadow Economy Dynamics

Tax burden, informatization, and shadow economy dynamics in Ukraine. Scenario analysis and game-theoretic approaches.

Estonia’s Digital Transformation — Lessons for Ukraine’s Shadow Economy Reduction

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Economic Research
Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19484648  59stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
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[t]Trusted83%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
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[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19484648
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness75%✓≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 75%
[c]Data Charts3✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 3
[g]Code✓✓Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (37 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (5/7 × 10%)

This article examines Estonia's digital transformation as a proven model for reducing shadow economy activity through comprehensive e-governance. Estonia reduced its shadow economy from 28% to 12% of GDP between 2010 and 2024, while Ukraine's shadow economy remains volatile around 37% despite similar starting points. We analyze three core mechanisms: (1) the X-Road data interoperability platfor...

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19484648 59stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources4%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted83%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI9%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef4%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed4%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic22%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References23 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]1,970✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 1,970
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]13✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 13
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19484648
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness75%✓≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 75%
[c]Data Charts3✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 3
[g]Code✓✓Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (37 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (5/7 × 10%)
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Labor Market Informality — Wage Underreporting and Social Insurance Evasion

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Economic Research
Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19482013  67stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
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[s]Reviewed Sources12%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted81%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI31%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef15%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed15%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic50%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access85%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References26 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]3,587✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 3,587
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]17✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 17
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19482013
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness75%✓≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 75%
[c]Data Charts5✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 5
[g]Code✓✓Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams2✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 2
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (49 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (5/7 × 10%)

Labor market informality represents one of the most pervasive channels of shadow economic activity, manifesting primarily through wage underreporting and systematic evasion of social insurance contributions. This article examines the behavioral, structural, and policy drivers of informal employment relationships, with particular attention to how tax burden, minimum wage enforcement, and contrib...

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19482013 67stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources12%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted81%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI31%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef15%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed15%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic50%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access85%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References26 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]3,587✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 3,587
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]17✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 17
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19482013
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness75%✓≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 75%
[c]Data Charts5✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 5
[g]Code✓✓Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams2✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 2
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (49 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (5/7 × 10%)
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VAT Gap Estimation for Ukraine \u2014 Methodology and Cross-Country Comparison

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Economic Research
Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19478897  55stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources6%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted50%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI13%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef6%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed13%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic19%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access94%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References16 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,032✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 2,032
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]7✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 7
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19478897
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness60%✓≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 60%
[c]Data Charts5✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 5
[g]Code✓✓Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (29 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (5/7 × 10%)

This article examines the methodology for estimating the Value-Added Tax (VAT) compliance gap, with specific application to Ukraine and a systematic comparison against European Union member states and candidate countries. Using the top-down VAT gap methodology endorsed by the European Commission and IMF, we reconstruct Ukraine's VAT compliance gap trajectory from 2015 to 2024 and benchmark it a...

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19478897 55stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources6%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted50%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI13%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef6%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed13%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic19%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access94%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References16 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,032✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 2,032
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]7✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 7
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19478897
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness60%✓≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 60%
[c]Data Charts5✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 5
[g]Code✓✓Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (29 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (5/7 × 10%)
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VAT Gap Estimation for Ukraine: Methodology and Cross-Country Comparison

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Economic Research
Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19281632  59stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
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[s]Reviewed Sources11%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted37%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI32%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef16%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed37%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic32%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References19 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,599✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 2,599
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[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19281632
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness47%○≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 47%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code✓✓Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (38 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (4/7 × 10%)

The value-added tax (VAT) compliance gap represents the difference between theoretical VAT liability and actual VAT revenue collected, serving as a primary quantitative indicator of tax evasion and shadow economic activity. This article examines the methodological landscape for VAT gap estimation, applies a comparative framework to Ukraine's fiscal context, and benchmarks Ukrainian VAT performa...

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19281632 59stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources11%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted37%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI32%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef16%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed37%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic32%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References19 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,599✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 2,599
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]12✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 12
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19281632
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness47%○≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 47%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code✓✓Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (38 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (4/7 × 10%)
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Regional Disparities in Ukraine’s Shadow Economy: An Oblasts-Level Analysis 2015–2025

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Economic Research
Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19258692  80stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
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[s]Reviewed Sources47%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted73%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI73%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef53%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed80%✓≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic73%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References15 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,114✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 2,114
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]9✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 9
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19258692
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness8%○≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 8%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (77 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (3/7 × 10%)

Ukraine's shadow economy constitutes one of the most persistent structural challenges to its fiscal sustainability and governance reform agenda. While national-level estimates have been widely studied, the regional dimension — how shadow activity distributes across Ukraine's 25 oblasts — remains underexplored in quantitative literature. This article presents an oblasts-level analysis of shadow ...

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19258692 80stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources47%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted73%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI73%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef53%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed80%✓≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic73%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access100%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References15 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,114✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 2,114
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]9✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 9
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19258692
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness8%○≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 8%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (77 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (3/7 × 10%)
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Digital Payment Adoption and Shadow Economy Reduction: Evidence from Ukraine’s Diia Platform

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Economic Research
Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19242241  62stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources24%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted52%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI33%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef24%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed38%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic52%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access76%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References21 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,472✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 2,472
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]16✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 16
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19242241
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness40%○≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 40%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (47 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (3/7 × 10%)

This article examines the relationship between digital payment adoption and shadow economy reduction in Ukraine, with particular focus on the Diia government services platform as a digitalization catalyst. Drawing on National Bank of Ukraine transaction data (2015–2025), cross-country panel evidence, and sector-level informality estimates, we investigate whether cashless payment penetration cau...

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19242241 62stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources24%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted52%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI33%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef24%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed38%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic52%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access76%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References21 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,472✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 2,472
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]16✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 16
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19242241
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness40%○≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 40%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (47 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (3/7 × 10%)
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Tax Evasion Mechanisms in Ukraine: A Typology of Shadow Economy Channels

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Economic Research
Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19229248  66stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources35%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted48%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI52%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef35%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed48%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic52%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access91%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References23 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,619✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 2,619
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]18✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 18
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19229248
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness50%○≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 50%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (53 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (3/7 × 10%)

Ukraine's shadow economy remains one of the largest in Europe, with wartime conditions creating both new evasion channels and shifting the composition of existing ones. This article develops a comprehensive typology of tax evasion mechanisms operating in Ukraine, classifying shadow economy channels along three dimensions: mechanism type, sectoral concentration, and detection difficulty. Drawing...

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19229248 66stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources35%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted48%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI52%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef35%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed48%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic52%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access91%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References23 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,619✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 2,619
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]18✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 18
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19229248
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness50%○≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 50%
[c]Data Charts4✓Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 4
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (53 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (3/7 × 10%)
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Policy Implications and a Decision Framework for Shadow Economy Reduction in Ukraine

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Economic Research
Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016590  68stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
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[t]Trusted80%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI36%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
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[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016590
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[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (59 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (2/7 × 10%)

Paper 3 of 3 in the series "Shadow Economy Dynamics." Builds on Paper 1: Problem Landscape and Paper 2: Scenario Analysis.

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016590 68stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources4%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted80%✓≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI36%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef8%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed76%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic36%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access76%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References25 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,293✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 2,293
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]16✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 16
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016590
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness13%○≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 13%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams2✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 2
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (59 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (2/7 × 10%)
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Scenario Analysis: Modeling Three Futures for Ukraine’s Shadow Economy (2025–2030)

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016584  62stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
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[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted55%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI55%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef9%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed27%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic45%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access82%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References11 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,485✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 2,485
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
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[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016584
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness17%○≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 17%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
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[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (48 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (2/7 × 10%)

In Paper 1 of this series (Ivchenko, Ivchenko & Grybeniuk, 2026a), we established that Ukraine's shadow economy has remained persistently high — between 30% and 45% of official GDP over the decade 2015–2025. We identified two competing feedback loops: a reinforcing cycle where high tax burdens push economic actors into informality, and a balancing mechanism where digitalization increases tr...

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016584 62stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted55%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI55%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef9%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed27%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic45%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access82%✓≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References11 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,485✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 2,485
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]7✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 7
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19016584
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness17%○≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 17%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (48 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (2/7 × 10%)
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Tax Burden, Digitalization, and Shadow Economy in Ukraine: A Problem Landscape (2015–2025)

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Economic Research
Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19008827  54stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted42%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI32%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef11%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed21%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic32%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access74%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References19 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,138✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 2,138
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
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[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19008827
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness5%○≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 5%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (35 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (2/7 × 10%)

Ukraine's shadow economy remains one of the largest in Europe, consistently estimated at 30–45% of official GDP over the past decade. This phenomenon directly undermines fiscal stability, distorts market competition, and complicates the country's path toward EU accession. The interaction between tax policy, digital governance, and informal economic activity forms a complex adaptive system where...

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Economic Research by Oleh Ivchenko, Iryna Ivchenko & Dmytro Grybeniuk DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19008827 54stabilfr·wuedophcgmx
BadgeMetricValueStatusDescription
[s]Reviewed Sources0%○≥80% from editorially reviewed sources
[t]Trusted42%○≥80% from verified, high-quality sources
[a]DOI32%○≥80% have a Digital Object Identifier
[b]CrossRef11%○≥80% indexed in CrossRef
[i]Indexed21%○≥80% have metadata indexed
[l]Academic32%○≥80% from journals/conferences/preprints
[f]Free Access74%○≥80% are freely accessible
[r]References19 refs✓Minimum 10 references required
[w]Words [REQ]2,138✓Minimum 1,000 words of article body. Current: 2,138
[u]Original [REQ]100%✓≥85% unique sentences (no padding or repeated blocks) and no leaked drafting notes. Current: 100% unique
[e]Evidence [REQ]14✓Cites at least 1 external source(s): links, DOIs or a reference list. Current: 14
[d]DOI [REQ]✓✓Zenodo DOI registered for persistent citation. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19008827
[o]ORCID✓✓Author ORCID verified for academic identity
[p]Peer Reviewed—○Peer reviewed by an assigned reviewer
[h]Freshness5%○≥60% of references from 2025–2026. Current: 5%
[c]Data Charts0○Original data charts from reproducible analysis (min 2). Current: 0
[g]Code—○Source code available on GitHub
[m]Diagrams3✓Mermaid architecture/flow diagrams. Current: 3
[x]Cited by0○Referenced by 0 other hub article(s)
Score = Ref Trust (35 × 60%) + Required (4/4 × 30%) + Optional (2/7 × 10%)
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