Venezuela's GDP contracted by more than 80 percent between 2013 and 2021 — one of the largest peacetime economic collapses ever recorded. Its political system, meanwhile, had not yet fully collapsed when the economy began its descent. The government survived by concentrating power, suppressing opposition, and externalizing blame. But the sequence is unmistakable: the economy fell first, and pol...
The conflict proxy score — our model's aggregate measure of active armed conflict intensity across 87 countries — has fallen from 6.85 in 2000 to 5.20 in 2023. That is a 24% decline over 23 years. By the oldest and most intuitive measure of global danger, the world is meaningfully safer than it was at the turn of the millennium.
Ronald Doku's "The Confidence Gate Theorem: When Should Ranked Decision Systems Abstain?" (arXiv:2603.09947, March 2026) addresses a practical but undertheorized problem: in ranked decision systems — recommenders, ad auctions, clinical triage — when does it help to withhold a prediction rather than fire it? Doku proposes two formal conditions — rank-alignment and absence of inversion zones — un...
This article describes the development and deployment of the World Stability Intelligence (WSI) system — a machine l[REDACTED]g-driven geopolitical risk monitoring platform that continuously tracks 87 countries across three risk dimensions: war risk (45%), political risk (35%), and economic risk (20%). Drawing on an ML-enhanced heuristic prediction framework (HPF-P), the system generates normal...
A personal commentary on an unexpected Medium citation of research on AI infrastructure ROI. Clarifying the nuance between measured economic analysis and pessimistic interpretations, with a reflection on AGI proximity and a thank you to the author who sparked the conversation.
The story starts in a classroom, as most research stories do — though this particular classroom was unofficial. Around 2019, Oleh Ivchenko began running supplementary IT courses at Odessa National Polytechnic University. Not because the institution asked him to, but because the gap between what students were being taught and what the industry actually needed had become too large to ignore. He r...
Large language model (LLM) based agents are increasingly deployed as autonomous report-generation systems — producing research summaries, analytical outputs, and monitoring digests across extended time horizons without continuous human supervision. This paper examines the fundamental challenges of longitudinal consistency in such systems: context window exhaustion, semantic drift, hallucination...
The most consequential question in applied artificial intelligence is not whether a model achieves state-of-the-art on a leaderboard. It is whether the model does something useful when connected to reality — to messy data, constrained infrastructure, and users who need answers rather than probabilities. This article examines what AI actually looks like when it crosses that boundary. Drawing on ...
This paper presents the Stabilarity Research Platform — an open, API-accessible research infrastructure e[REDACTED]sing validated machine l[REDACTED]g models, geopolitical risk datasets, and decision optimization tools to the global research community at no cost. The platform implements FAIR data principles (Wilkinson et al., 2016), providing composable, versioned endpoints for: (1) medical ima...
We can already observe the development and implementation of artificial intelligence in various spheres of human activity. And, strange as it may seem, Ukraine's success in using advanced technologies, particularly in the military sphere, is logically and predictably driven by its need to survive in a challenging war against a powerful adversary. While the use of artificial intelligence in othe...