Economic Research
Paper 3 of 3 in the series "Shadow Economy Dynamics." Builds on Paper 1: Problem Landscape and Paper 2: Scenario Analysis.
Category: Shadow Economy Dynamics
Tax burden, informatization, and shadow economy dynamics in Ukraine. Scenario analysis and game-theoretic approaches.
Scenario Analysis: Modeling Three Futures for Ukraine’s Shadow Economy (2025–2030)
Economic Research
In Paper 1 of this series (Ivchenko, Ivchenko & Grybeniuk, 2026a), we established that Ukraine's shadow economy has remained persistently high — between 30% and 45% of official GDP over the decade 2015–2025. We identified two competing feedback loops: a reinforcing cycle where high tax burdens push economic actors into informality, and a balancing mechanism where digitalization increases tr...
Tax Burden, Digitalization, and Shadow Economy in Ukraine: A Problem Landscape (2015–2025)
Economic Research
Ukraine's shadow economy remains one of the largest in Europe, consistently estimated at 30–45% of official GDP over the past decade. This phenomenon directly undermines fiscal stability, distorts market competition, and complicates the country's path toward EU accession. The interaction between tax policy, digital governance, and informal economic activity forms a complex adaptive system where...